From Icesave to normality
The Icesave agreement* is by no means save, in the sense that it’s still unclear how the Icesave bill will fare in Althingi when MPs return January 17. The latest I heard was a rumour that the government (a coalition led by social democrats with the Left Greens) had made a pact with the Independence Party (conservative): the IP would support the new Icesave deal but in exchange the government would make no radical changes on the fishery quota system.
This is an unsubstantiated rumour from political circles and I’ve no idea whether there is a grain of truth here but it shows that there’s no lack of speculation. Since the Icelandic president refused to sign the last bill a year ago his reaction is a variable in the Icesave outcome and many are speculating as to what he will do. President Ragnarsson hasn’t yet said what he will decide re Icesave but some Icelanders interpreted his New Year address on TV January 1st as a message on Icesave: that he would again refuse to sign the new bill and instead call for an Icesave referendum again.
In a log on Vox today, professor of economy at Reykjavik University Fridrik Mar Baldursson contemplates the new agreement and the third round of solving the issue. Baldurson concludes:
We have come out of the laboratory and into the real world with all its complexities. This is not a one-shot ultimatum game, but a repeated real-life game with high stakes, and the rules are made up as we go along.
*An earlier log on the latest Icesave agreement can be found here.
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