Sigrún Davíðsdóttir's Icelog

End of central bank independence in Iceland – the pessimistic view

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The leaders of the Icelandic coalition government are struggling to appoint a governor of the Central Bank of Iceland. It now seems that the most likely outcome is that more than one will be appointed, whether it will right away or later. This spells the end of an independent central bank in Iceland. The stumbling process prompts the question how likely it is that a government that cannot agree on appointing a governor of the Central Bank will be able to chew through all the very difficult decisions needed in order to lift the capital controls.

In its last report on Iceland the International Monetary Fund sent some thinly veiled sharp messages to the Icelandic government: one was on the importance of respecting the independence of the Central Bank of Iceland; the other was the importance of an orderly path in resolving the estates of the collapsed banks, i.e. composition and not bankruptcy (more on this in an earlier blog).

It now seems that the government is just about to ignore the first advice, on the all important independence of the CBI. After mulling over the three most suitable candidates a “bizarre” selection committee put forward it now seems that the government cannot choose one candidate. Instead, it seems to be planning to change the management structure of the bank – and put more than one governor at the helm (more on the selection and its implications here).

Bjarni Benediktsson minister of finance said in a Rúv interview last night that considering the increased work load at the bank it made sense to appoint more than one governor (as if this need has suddenly become desperately clear).

The truth is that the government has been mulling over these changes more or less during the year since it came to power but apparently never could make up its mind as to what to do. This surfaced i.a. when the governorship of the present governor was not prolonged literally hours before it would have been renewed automatically.

At the beginning of May Benediktsson appointed a committee to review laws regarding the CBI. The committee was to come up with proposals before the end of this year. Those on the committee are Friðrik Már Baldursson, one of the applicants for the post of governor, Ólöf Nordal who was on the selection committee and is an ex-MP and ex-vice chairman of the Independence party. The third committee member is professor Þráinn Eggertsson at the University of Iceland.

Now there is suddenly no time to wait for the proposals of this committee as to the future of the CBI. Instead, it has all to be decided on the hoof and in a hurry before a new governor or governors will be appointed. New governor(s) has/have to be appointed before the end of August when the time in office of the present governor, Már Guðmundsson, expires.

From the three candidates seen as equally merited by the “bizarre” selection committee – Már Guðmundsson and two professors, Ragnar Árnason and Friðrik Már Baldursson – Guðmundsson is undisputedly the best qualified. For political reasons, the government is unable to rest with Guðmundsson continuing. This seems to be accelerating the process of management changes at the CBI where one or two of the professors would be hired as well.

Benediktsson seems to be indicating that more than one could be appointed. How that is possible – i.e. to make changes and then just appoint from the present pool of applicants – seems questionable but well, remains to be seen.

Seen from the outside, imaging this whole process happening in another Western civilised country, tells a sad saga about the state of affairs in Iceland. Regrettably, the CBI has been kept in a limbo since end of February when it became clear (unexpectedly since it was done last minute) that Guðmundsson’s time in office would not be automatically extended. Bearing in mind that Guðmundsson is eminently respected and has shown himself to be a capable governor and the CBI has been doing important work towards lifting the capital controls all of this is even more regrettable.

In addition, this whole unfortunate saga of the CBI is a sad example of how this government struggles to make up its mind on important issues. The unsettling thought is that since it seems so difficult to choose a governor of the CBI how is this government ever going to agree on i.a. the tough issues that need to be dealt with in lifting the capital controls. Maybe I’m being overly pessimistic here but if things continue in this way the four years of this government in power will come to pass without any of the decisive steps needed. – A case in point is that the time to decide on the Landsbanki bonds agreement has now been extended from August 8 to end of September… because the government had not made up its mind, yet.

With nothing being done regarding the capital controls would mean four more years for Iceland in the wilderness of controls – a truly dispiriting thought. (And I sure hope I’m wrong.)

 

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Written by Sigrún Davídsdóttir

August 13th, 2014 at 9:40 am

Posted in Iceland

4 Responses to 'End of central bank independence in Iceland – the pessimistic view'

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  1. To the initiated, it’s very clear from your writing that you don’t understand monetary operations, or that NO Central Bank is independent. I recommend that you take Perry Mehrling’s online course on the ‘Economics of Money and Banking’ at Coursera, and you can quickly learn how financial operations really work. If you don’t learn balance sheets, you don’t have a hope of really understanding what happened, or what happens…

    John Banks

    13 Aug 14 at 11:54 am

  2. sounds like someone needs to understand the balance sheets of Icelandic politics.

    Lee Nelson

    14 Aug 14 at 11:05 am

  3. I agree with John that Central Banks are not completely independent. They tend to be under pressure from politicians and other stakeholders, especially at times of economic difficulty. However there is quite a gap between that and what is going on with the CBI. It is very very bad practice and truly concerning for international investors, creditors…

    Roelf

    14 Aug 14 at 8:22 pm

  4. […] However, it says in the letter of appointment that since there is a committee working on revising laws on the framework of his office might change (see further here). […]

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